Monday, March 7, 2016

Warriors' loss historic, but they tend to bounce back for NBA bettors
The Golden State Warriors' drive to a record 73-win season hit a speed bump on Sunday when they lost by 17, as a 17.5-point favorite to the Lakers. Not only was Los Angeles' upset the biggest of the year, it was the biggest in over two decades.

The Lakers' upset was the biggest since Dallas (+19.5) defeated Seattle, 109-107, on April 6, 1993. Even more impressive: it was just the 13th time over the past 26 years when a 13-point (or greater) underdog won by at least 13 points. Among those games, the Lakers' 34.5-point cover represented the second biggest pointspread differential, bested only by the Clippers' 25-point win, as a 14-point underdog, against the Lakers on Dec. 9, 1994.

Spread Watch

The Atlanta Hawks have had a pedestrian season, for the most part. Especially when compared to last year's breakout season, in which they went 60-22 straight-up, and 50-31-1 ATS.

But the Hawks are starting to show signs of life. They've won four of their last five (5-0 ATS) and have sandwiched four double-digit wins around a 4-point loss at Golden State.

Atlanta's most recent win was its most impressive, as it went into Staples Center, and upset the Clippers, who were 21-10 at home. Atlanta trailed that game by 12 after the first quarter, but outscored the Clips 82-60 the rest of the way. 

This week, Atlanta's road trip continues with stops at Utah (Tuesday) and Toronto (Thursday), before returning home to face the Grizzlies and Pacers. The Hawks 12-4 SU and 11-5 ATS since 2007 versus the Jazz, including 7-0 ATS if both teams are off a win.

Totals Watch

The wheels have started to come off of the Dallas Mavericks' defense (not that they were ever securely on, to begin with). The Mavs have allowed over 100 points in 11 consecutive games. Not surprisingly, 10 of those 11 games have gone Over the total. 

Before this stretch, Dallas had allowed 100.8 ppg, but its defensive average over these 11 games has ballooned to 111.0 ppg. The Mavs will entertain the Clippers Monday. If history repeats itself, then another Over is likely, as these two teams combined for 226 points in their last meeting. Additionally nine of their last 10 meetings have gone Over the total.

Then, on Wednesday, Dallas will host Detroit, where 10 of the previous 13 meetings between those two clubs have sailed Over the total.

Injury Watch

The star-crossed career of Eric Gordon continued when the Pelicans' guard re-fractured his finger in Saturday's loss to Utah. It's the same injury which caused Gordon to miss 16 games earlier this year, and it likely means the end of his season. 

This will be the seventh straight year he will have missed a significant number of games due to injury. Indeed, if he misses the rest of the season, he would have missed 219 of 558 games over the past seven seasons. 

Going into Saturday's game, Gordon had averaged 22.67 ppg over his previous three outings and he's New Orleans' fourth-leading scorer this season (15.2 ppg). Even if Gordon hadn't gotten injured, the odds that the Pelicans would have made the playoffs were slim, but his injury is certainly the final nail in the coffin. 

This week, New Orleans will host a desperate Sacramento club on Monday, before embarking on a road trip to face the Hornets, Grizzlies and Bucks. Sacramento is just four games out of the playoff picture and will be highly-motivated to win. Sacramento did lose its previous two games to the Pelicans this season, but double-revenging teams are 29-13 ATS versus New Orleans, including 6-0 ATS their last six.

Schedule Watch

The Warriors embarrassing loss to the Lakers Sunday surely won't sit well with Steph Curry & Co., as there's scant room for error, if they're to challenge the Bulls' record of 72 wins. 

This season, Golden State has bounced back strongly off a defeat. It's 4-1 ATS following its previous five losses and its only ATS defeat was by a single point, on Feb. 20, when the Clippers scored the last 13 points of the game to lose by three, as a 4-point pup. 

Even more impressive is the fact that Golden State is 26-9-1 ATS its last 36 games off a loss by 9-plus points. Look for Orlando to get walloped by the Warriors Monday, as Golden State is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in the series since 2013.

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