The San Antonio Spurs, now featuring LaMarcus Aldridge, are the faves to win one of the deepest division in the entire league. Can they fend off competition from the likes of Memphis, Houston and New Orleans?
Covers Expert Steve Merril breaks down the best ways to bet the NBA’s Southwest Division:
Dallas Mavericks (2014-15: 50-32 SU, 36-44-2 ATS)
Odds To Win Division: +5000
Season Win Total: 38.5
Why Bet The Mavericks: Dallas has assembled a deep and talented roaster that has a lot of experience for the 2015 season. The Mavericks are a veteran-laden team, so they know how to navigate through the grind of a NBA season. The team should gel quickly as there are no big ego players on the roster.
Why Not To Bet The Mavericks: Because of their team makeup, the obvious concern for the Mavericks is staying healthy. Older players tend to breakdown more often, and Dallas’ longest tenured player, Dirk Nowitzki, seems to be tailing off. Interior defense will also be an issue this season, so Dallas will be at a disadvantage against young, fast paced teams and teams that have dominant paint players.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 38.5 Wins
Houston Rockets (2014-15: 56-26 SU, 48-34 ATS)
Odds To Win Division: +300
Season Win Total: 54.5
Why Bet The Rockets: Houston has an explosive offense that can outscore their opponent on any given night. The offense will play even faster this season with the acquisition of speedy point guard Ty Lawson. Houston also has a very good three-point shooting team, so defenses will be hard-pressed to slow this offense down. The Rockets have as deep and talented roster as any team in the NBA.
Why Not To Bet The Rockets: The biggest concern for Houston once again this season is injuries. Dwight Howard is almost certain to miss time with some kind of lingering injury, and his absence makes the Rockets vulnerable around the rim. Houston ranked 29th in free throw shooting (70.1%) last season, and that’s an issue for the Rockets late in games.
Season Win Total Pick: Over 54.5 Wins
Memphis Grizzlies (2014-15: 55-27 SU, 40-40-2 ATS)
Odds To Win Division: +700
Season Win Total: 50.5
Why Bet The Grizzlies: Memphis is one of the best frontcourt teams in the NBA. Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol are a formidable duo inside the paint, and added depth off the bench was an outstanding move by management. The Grizzlies’ core has been together for awhile, and with one of the best defenses in the NBA, Memphis is a tough out in each and every game.
Why Not To Bet The Grizzlies: Offense doesn’t come easy for Memphis. Scoring the basketball consistently has held the Grizzlies back from getting to the next level. The Grizzlies do not hit enough three pointers, and that puts too much pressure on their defense. Memphis certainly has the talent and defense to win, but a lack of offense is their biggest culprit.
Season Win Total Pick: Over 50.5 Wins
New Orleans Pelicans (2014-15: 45-37 SU, 45-37 ATS)
Odds To Win Division: +800
Season Win Total: 47.5
Why Bet The Pelicans: Anthony Davis is the best young two-way player in the NBA. Davis is a difference maker on both ends of the court, and as long as he’s playing, New Orleans has a chance to win. New head coach Alvin Gentry will speed up the tempo and turn the Pelicans into a very good offensive team this season, especially since they have terrific inside-out scoring balance.
Why Not To Bet The Pelicans: New Orleans must avoid the injury bug, but that has been a major issue in the preseason so far. Davis can’t stay healthy; he has missed 14 games or more every year. The roster is full of injury prone players, and that is going to hurt their depth throughout an 82-game schedule.
Season Win Total Pick: Under 47.5 Wins
San Antonio Spurs (2014-15: 55-27 SU, 41-39-2 ATS)
Odds To Win Division: -160
Season Win Total: 58.5
Why Bet The Spurs: San Antonio is simply one of the best teams in the NBA. The Spurs are fantastic on both ends of the court because they have an incredible front court that was bolstered with the acquisition of LaMarcus Aldridge. Their team depth is the best in the league, and their on-court chemistry is second to none.
Why Not To Bet The Spurs: The Spurs have aging veterans at two of the most important positions on the court; Tony Parker at point guard and Tim Duncan at center. Health is also a major concern for a veteran team, so the Spurs will have to hope to avoid the injury bug.
Season Win Total Pick: Over 58.5 Wins
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[Source: Covers.com: NBA News and Stories]
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