Saturday, October 29, 2016

Hand Review: Fold the River or Bluff Facing Three Barrels?NO Deposit bonus $43
HomeStrategyPoker Tournaments Jose Montes
  • Mo Nuwwarah reviews a hand he played on the WSOP-C Hammond that left him second-guessing his play.

  • What would you do at the river on this WSOP-C hand -- fold or opt for what is usually a credible bluff?

Covering live poker tournaments for a living affords me the chance to peer countless thousands of hands played out, lots of which give interesting and potentially valuable insights into how players — both amateurs and professionals — play the sport. On this ongoing series, I'll highlight hands I've seen on the tournaments I've covered and spot if we will glean anything useful from them.

The Scene

Last weekend, this weekly feature didn't appear on our site as I traveled to Chicago to play within the $1,675 buy-in World Series of Poker Circuit Horseshoe Hammond Main Event. Things didn't go as planned within the event as I USED TO BE unable to even give myself a sweat by making it to Day 2, but perhaps I WILL BE ABLE TO discuss an enchanting hand or two, at least.

The early levels had gone fairly well for me and that i had built my starting stack of 20,000 as much as about 37,000 when a fun hand came up against Jose Montes (pictured above) who had me covered on this hand.

Montes is a traveling pro who have been very successful the past few years. He gave the impression to be playing pretty aggressively as he had opened quite a lot of pots and three-bet a couple of more. Meanwhile I have been at the tighter side as I hadn't been dealt much.

The Action

With blinds at 300/600/100, action folded to Montes within the hijack seat, where he opened to 1,300. The following three players folded, and that i called within the big blind with  5-  5- .

The flop came  6-  7-  6- , and that i checked. Montes bet 1,200 and that i called. The turn was a  k- . Montes fired again for 3,000 once I checked, and that i called yet again. At the  a- river, I checked a last time. This time, after Montes fired 5,500, I folded.

Concept and Analysis

Preflop, I expect Montes to be opening pretty wide from the hijack. He were playing a whole lot of hands in late position, although he hadn't shown down much. Fives appear to be a gorgeous standard call from the massive blind, where I'm getting a perfect price but don't need to three-bet to begin building an incredible pot with a hand that's more likely to be mediocre after the flop.

On the  6-  7-  6- flop, I FEEL it is a pretty easy check-call. My hand have to be the most efficient hand here nearly all of the time. Of course, it's prone to get tricky to play on some later streets when more overcards arrive. But, I MIGHT usually need to check-call my strong hands here, too, since he is not more likely to have anything to pay me off.

The turn is where things begin to get interesting. A king is a great card for his range and bad for mine since I check-called that flop. He'll have plenty of hands he stabbed on the pot with that come with kings, so it is a pretty mandatory barrel card for him.

There's probably merit to folding right here, especially against good, aggressive players. They are going to put you in tough spots at the river sometimes. Plus, there's now six cards that might come — any king or seven — that will completely kill my hand. He also sized his bet greater than double his flop bet, indicating a large river barrel may well be coming.

However, within the actual hand, I did choose to call and spot the river. I BELIEVE I'm still beating a good chunk of his range, corresponding to  a-  x- hands and stuff like  q-  j- .

When the  a- fell — no flushes were possible this hand — I USED TO BE taking a look at a very ugly runout. I checked and he bet 5,500, and at this point, I DON'T BELIEVE there's enough air in his hand for me to profitably call. I quickly dismissed that option, but it surely occurred to me that I MAY fire out a raise to about 15,000 instead and switch my hand right into a bluff.

All of the ingredients were in place. My opponent was a late position opener, meaning he was likely to have a weaker range. I USED TO BE within the big blind facing almost a min-raise preflop, so I MAY absolutely have a six in my hand. And that i could credibly represent a six since slow playing can be understandable on this kind of dry board. Finally, I were playing fairly tight and hadn't shown down anything too crazy.

Ultimately, I MADE UP MY MIND to err at the side of caution and fold. But I PONDER if I missed a profitable spot to check out and bluff here. What do you think?

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